Online ISSN: 2515-8260

Predictive study of the end of the Covid-19 pandemic in Morocco by regression, and ARIMA modeling (p, d, q)

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Majdouline Larif 1,4*, Adnane Aouidate2 , Mohammed Bouachrine3 , Tahar Lakhlifi2 and Abdelmajid Soulaymani

Abstract

Objective and methods: The objective of our study is to provide forecasts on the key data of the epidemiological situation in Morocco in order to predict the number of beds in hospitals.The data sources used in this study are official and they were daily collected updated with information from the Moroccan Ministry of Health at 6:00 p.m. before the month of Ramadan and 4:00 p.m. for this month. The autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA was applied to real-time for the two month Predictions on the Moroccan population. ARIMA models were able to estimate the number of positive cases confirmed based on two criteria. The first criterion is to determine the reliability of the statistics and the second one is to measure the accuracy of forecasting ability of the model equation. The sparse model with the lowest order of the (AR) or (MA) and (RMSE) values of the forecasts for each dataset was considered the best. Result and Conclusion: The ARIMA (1,0,0), ARIMA (9,0,0) and ARIMA (10,0,1) models were deemed to be the best suited to provide the best possible model to predict the number of positive cases for two months of prediction of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). However, the ARIMA model (10,0,1) predicts the best model with an expected end of home confinement at the end of June 2020 with an epidemiological peak of 5000 accumulated cases caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) on 13/05/2029.The models were able to predict the number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) within a range of two months in Morocco. Thus, it can be a useful tool for health officials to improve management of the fight against the pandemic and to warn in advance of the spread of the pandemic.

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