Online ISSN: 2515-8260

Predictive Modeling of Diarrhea Outbreaks in the Philippines: An ARIMA Approach

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Dr. G. Mokesh Rayalu

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to apply the ARIMA modeling approach to examine and predict the occurrence of diarrhea in the Philippines. Understanding the underlying patterns and dynamics of diarrhea prevalence was our goal in analyzing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, testing its time series features using the Autocorrelation Function (ACF), and the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), and validating the model's adequacy with the Box-Jenkins method. Our goal in conducting such a thorough analysis of these measures was to offer policymakers and healthcare providers with accurate projections that would aid them in adopting targeted interventions to reduce the prevalence of diarrhea in the Philippines.

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